Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
