A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has got something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
